The "Current" Population of New York City:  Release of Population Estimates by the Census Bureau for July 1, 2008*

Population by Borough: 2000 to 2008

• As of July 1, 2008, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of the City of New York was 8,363,710, an increase of more than 355,000 persons or 4.4 percent since April 2000.
  
  
• Staten Island continues to outpace the four other boroughs of the city, with a growth rate of 9.8 percent, placing it among the fastest growing counties in New York State. Manhattan increased by 6.3 percent, the Bronx by 4.4 percent, Brooklyn by 3.7 percent and Queens had an estimated increase of 2.9 percent.

• In 2000, New York City accounted for 42.2 percent of New York State’s population.  Since 2000, 69 percent of all growth in the state is attributable to the five boroughs (355,000 of the 514,000 increase statewide).  As a result, the percentage of the state’s population that resides in New York City has increased to 42.9 percent in 2008.
  
  
• The increase in population of 4.4 percent is a product of a large population “churn,” with substantial domestic losses (estimates in the range of one million persons) being offset by large international inflows (in the range of 850,000 persons) and natural increase (the balance of births and deaths) on the order of 500,000 persons.
  
  
• The City of New York continues to grow at a substantial rate, which makes it unique among the older, large cities in the northeastern and Midwestern parts of the nation.  Most other large cities in these regions have lost population over this period.

• The population of New York City increased by more than 53,000 persons between 2007 and 2008, an increase of 0.6 percent.  The largest numerical increases were in Brooklyn and Queens, 17,000 and 15,000 respectively.  The largest percentage change was in Staten Island, where the population increased by 0.9 percent in just one year.

• Net domestic migration losses (the balance of people who enter the city from the 50 states and leave for destinations in the 50 states) for 2007-2008 were smaller than in previous periods: a net loss of 76,000 persons compared to an annual average loss of 148,000 persons for the previous seven years.  This means either that fewer people were leaving, or more were entering the city in this period, representing the peak of the city’s economic cycle, than in previous periods. 

• While net domestic migration is the hardest component of population change to estimate, there are plausible reasons to explain this finding.  With the onset of the national recession in late 2007, New York City may have been viewed as a relatively more attractive area to live, compared with other parts of the country. Many of the favorite destinations for migrants who leave the region may have fallen out of favor because of housing and economic circumstances, including states such as Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California.  (Historically, about one-half of New York City’s total out-migrant stream moves outside the region.) The city’s private employment did not begin to decline until late 2008, after the date of this estimate.  In addition, the large number of new housing units completed in the 2007-2008 period, compared with the suburbs, may have caused more households to choose to continue to live in the city, rather than move to other parts of the region. 
  
  
• Immigration has slowed to a small degree, but its effect is still pronounced, in the form of helping to offset domestic outflows.  What makes 2007-2008 different is that immigration has almost completely offset the domestic outflow; a 73,000 gain attributable to net international migration against a 76,000 loss through net domestic flows.  When coupled with a net gain of some 63,000 persons as a result of natural increase, the result is a sizable gain in population for New York City. ** 

*A Note about the Sources of these Population Estimates
Each year, the Census Bureau releases population estimates for New York City and the five boroughs.  These estimates are subsequently reviewed by Department of City Planning demographers. Through a process offered by the Census Bureau, the City of New York uses a recognized alternate methodology, based on estimates of housing units, average household size, type of new housing, and vacancy rates, to create its own population estimates.  Estimates of housing units are based on data from the Department of Buildings, the Department of Finance and other city administrative records.

If there are large discrepancies between the Census Bureau’s population estimate and the Department of City Planning’s alternate calculation, the Census Bureau permits a “challenge” of its population estimate.  (To its credit, the Census Bureau recognizes that the method they use does not represent the best approach for all areas of the nation, so they invite localities to submit alternate estimates.) The City has submitted challenges for the last five years, covering estimates for 2003 through 2007. In each case, the Census Bureau has increased the city’s population, based on the alternate methodology.

The July 1, 2008 DCP estimates created using the housing unit show a minimal difference with the Census Bureau estimates, less than one-tenth of one percent citywide, with similarly small differences at the borough level. Given the similarity between the DCP estimates and those from the Census Bureau, along with the point in the decade – 8 years out from the 2000 decennial census benchmark and less than 2 years away from the 2010 enumeration – we have decided not to pursue a challenge to the 2008 Census Bureau estimates.    

** Note: The estimated components of population change will not equal the numerical population change because of a small residual that is created after controlling to the national totals; this residual cannot be parsed into individual components.



Discussion of 2007 Population Estimates.